Your Weekly Edge



The following audio episode  provides an in depth discussion of this weeks news from "The Edge".

 

 
 

  

🟡 The Weekly Edge – 8th May 2025


Debt Denial & Disappearing Data

​— Brought to you by the team at Gilt Investments ​

Welcome back to The Weekly Edge—your compass in the fog, where we unpack the signals behind the noise and stay grounded in process, not panic.

If last week was confusion, this week feels like denial wrapped in a debt spiral. Markets are shrugging. Headlines are glowing. But beneath the surface? The cracks are spreading.


📉 China’s Vanishing Data, Vanishing Confidence

China’s economy isn’t just slowing—it’s slipping off the radar.

In a move that rattled markets, Beijing has reportedly pulled hundreds of key economic indicators from public view. From youth unemployment to land sales to soy sauce production—if the numbers don’t look good, they don’t get published.

The last youth unemployment figure was 22%. Then—poof—it disappeared.

For fixed income investors, this is more than an emerging market curiosity. When transparency dies, spreads widen. Global credit conditions don’t exist in silos—and risk aversion grows fast when economic vision goes dark.


đź’¸ Global Debt: A $324 Trillion Warning Sign

The world’s total debt has now surged past $324 trillion, with $26 trillion in redemptions due by the end of 2025. That includes $7 trillion from emerging markets and $19 trillion from developed economies.

We’re now in a rolling game of debt musical chairs—borrowing to repay previous borrowing, just to delay the inevitable.

With central banks still dancing between tightening and easing, the bond market is walking a tightrope. A failed rollover event could quickly become a liquidity shock.


🏠 Mortgages, Mayhem & Market Jitters

  • UK borrowers rushed to beat new tax changes, pushing March mortgage lending up by almost ÂŁ10 billion—a last gasp before policy headwinds hit.

  • In the U.S., job growth is softening, and the S&P just snapped its longest winning streak in decades.

  • In Israel, flight disruptions amid a Yemeni aerial blockade mark another notch in a growing belt of geopolitical instability.

Everywhere we look, conviction is fading. Markets aren’t panicking—but they’re definitely not confident.


🇦🇺 Australia: Calm Surface, Fractured Undercurrent

Locally, Australia still appears resilient.

Bond yields hover near 4.3%, and the ASX remains stable. But don’t be lulled into complacency. There are whispers of a AAA credit rating downgrade, and with $400 billion in external debt, any downgrade could amplify offshore funding risks overnight.

Meanwhile, rate cut expectations (3 to 6 by year-end) sit awkwardly alongside sticky inflation and softening global sentiment. We may be steady—but not immune.


🧭 Final Take: Process Over Prediction

This week, we leave you with five takeaways:

  1. China’s numbers are disappearing—and that’s a signal.

  2. Global debt is not just high—it’s destabilizing.

  3. Credit risk is growing while confidence quietly erodes.

  4. Geopolitics and mortgages are adding to the volatility mix.

  5. Australia’s stability is built on foundations that may shift quickly.

Now’s not the time for romanticism. This is a market for realists—for investors who stay positioned, not persuaded.


Thanks for tuning in to The Weekly Edge. Stay curious, stay skeptical, and as always—
watch the edges.

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Stay nimble. Stay informed. Stay steady.
We’ll see you next week on The Weekly Edge.

 

Disclaimer

This publication has been prepared by Gilt Investments Pty Ltd and is for informational purposes only. It contains general financial product advice that does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation, or needs.

Before acting on any information contained herein, you should consider whether it is appropriate for your circumstances and seek independent professional advice.

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